Tim Johnson Real Estate Blog

From B of A Weekly Updates:
May 16, 2012

Last week in review (May 7 – 11, 2012)

Last week, the National Association of REALTORS® said that of the 146 Metro cities surveyed, home prices rose in 74 of them in Q1 2012. This is up from 29 cities that saw an increase in home prices in Q4 2011. In addition, the National Association of REALTORS® stated that inventories for existing homes fell 22% since this time last year and are down 41% since the peak in mid-2007. While the housing market has a long way to go, this report was a nice step in the right direction.

There was also news from the National Federation of Independent Business, which said that its small business optimism index gained 2% in April as the survey revealed that companies have increased plans for hiring and investing in the future. While companies added new employees at a slower pace in April than in March; the index rose to 94.5, the highest level since February of 2011. Overall the report showed that our economy is improving but is still fragile. The state of our economy is part of the reason for the improvement in bonds (and home loan rates, which are tied to mortgage bonds) of late.

Another big reason that bonds and home loan rates have been improving is the uncertainty out of Europe. France elected a new president, and this change of the guard represents the ninth EuroZone leader swap since the financial crisis began. Greece is also back in the news and their citizens are not taking to the austerity measures either. The New Democracy government, a pro-bailout party, is having trouble gathering the support to rule the government. This has sparked some safe haven trading into our bonds, as investors see U.S. bonds as a safe place for their money.

California home sales declined in March from February’s pace, while the median home price snapped a 16-month annual price decline and posted its first year-over-year gain, C.A.R. reported Monday.

The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home jumped 9.2 percent to $291,080 in March from February’s $266,660 median price and was up 1.6 percent from a revised $286,550 recorded in March 2011. The month-to-month increase was the largest since March 2004.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 505,360 units in March, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. Sales in March were down 4.5 percent month-over-month and 2.3 percent year-to-year.

“Housing inventory remains extremely tight throughout the state and at levels severely under normal market conditions,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “In areas, such as Los Angeles and Riverside counties, where the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) wants to implement the REO bulk sale pilot program, inventory is running at levels well below the long-run average. These low inventory levels demonstrate that the pilot program is not necessary in California.”

The pilot program calls for the sale of more than 600 Fannie Mae-owned foreclosed homes in Los Angeles and Riverside counties to institutional investors.

April 09, 2012
Americans’ Expectations Align to Encourage Home Buying
Respondents Expect Significant Rental Price Rise

Keosha Burns
202-752-7840

WASHINGTON, DC – More consumers may be looking to purchase homes with a shift in several key housing market indicators, according to Fannie Mae’s March 2012 consumer attitudinal National Housing Survey. More Americans now expect both home rental and home purchase prices to increase over the next year. Nearly half of consumers expect higher rental prices, the highest number recorded since monthly tracking began in June 2010. Thirty-three percent expect home prices to increase, up 5 percentage points since last month, and the highest percentage recorded in over a year. In addition, confidence in consumers’ views of their own finances is stabilizing—for three straight months—44 percent believe their personal finances will get better over the next year. These trends may be providing Americans with an increased sense of urgency to buy a home as 73 percent of Americans now believe it is a good time to buy a home, up from seventy percent in February.

“Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “Americans’ rental price expectations for the next year continue to rise, reaching their record high level for our survey this month. With an increasing share of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates and home prices over the next 12 months, some may feel that renting is becoming more costly and that homeownership is a more compelling housing choice.”

SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS

Homeownership and Renting

Thirty-three percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, a five percentage point increase from last month, the highest level over the past 12 months.
On average, Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.9 percent over the next 12 months (up slightly since last month).
Thirty-nine percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months, a five percentage point increase from last month.
The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy rose by three points to 73 percent, the highest level in over a year, while the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell rose one point to 14 percent this month.
On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 4.1 percent over the next 12 months, a significant increase since February, and the highest number recorded to date.
Forty-eight percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up, a three percentage point increase from last month and the highest number recorded to date.
Sixty-six percent of respondents say they would buy their next home if they were going to move, up one point since last month, while thirty percent say they would rent, up one point versus last month.

The Economy and Household Finances

The rise in confidence in the economy’s direction leveled this month, with 35 percent responding that they think the economy is on the right track, consistent with February’s total. The percentage who say the economy is on the wrong track rose slightly from 57 percent to 58 percent.
Only 12 percent think that their personal financial situation will worsen in the next 12 months, consistent with February as the lowest value in over a year, and tied with January 2011 for the lowest to date.
Twenty-one percent of respondents say their income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago, up 1 point versus February, while 63 percent say it has stayed the same – consistent with February’s values
Thirty-four percent say their expenses have increased significantly over the past 12 months (a slight increase of one percentage point).

The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey polled 1,003 Americans via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, mortgage rates, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts (findings are compared to the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support in the future.

For detailed findings from the March 2012 survey, as well as technical notes on survey methodology and the questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Fannie Mae Monthly National Housing Survey site. Also available on the site are quarterly survey results, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies. The Fannie Mae National Housing Survey was conducted between March 1, 2012 and March 28, 2012. Interviews were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, in coordination with Fannie Mae.
Fannie Mae exists to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has a federal charter and operates in America’s secondary mortgage market to enhance the liquidity of the mortgage market by providing funds to mortgage bankers and other lenders so that they may lend to home buyers. Our job is to help those who house America.

From The Wall Street Journal
By Mia Lamar

The consumer outlook for U.S. home prices improved again in January, extending a recent upward trend in housing market sentiment, according to mortgage market firm Fannie Mae.

For its monthly reading, Fannie Mae said respondents in its January survey predicted home prices will rise by 1% over the next year, up from the 0.8% gain forecast in December.

Views on the direction of the U.S. economy also continued to improve. According to the respondents, 30% said they believe the U.S. economy is on the right track, up from 22% with that view in December. The percentage who said the economy is headed in the wrong direction fell to 63% of respondents, marking a 6 percentage point decline from the previous month.

Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan pointed to a slowly improving U.S. job market as one cause for rising confidence in the long-battered housing market. ”The strengthening employment picture last Friday provides encouragement that the improving trend in consumer confidence will continue and will at some point be reflected in a firming up of consumer spending,” Duncan said.

A report last week from the U.S. Labor Department showed nonfarm payrolls grew 243,000 last month, the largest gain since April. The jobless rate fell from 8.5% to 8.3%, the lowest it has been since February 2009.

Fannie Mae’s January survey also found 44% of respondents expect their personal financial situation to improve over the next year, up from 40% with that view in December.

The survey is based upon a monthly poll of roughly 1,000 adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.

In his State of the Union address, President Obama laid out a plan to help responsible borrowers and support a housing market recovery.

Key aspects of the president’s plan include:

Broad-based refinancing: The president’s plan will provide borrowers who are current on their payments with an opportunity to refinance and take advantage of historically low interest rates
Homeowner Bill of Rights: The president is putting forward a single set of standards to make sure borrowers and lenders play by the same rules, including: Access to a simple mortgage disclosure form, so borrowers understand the loans they are taking out; full disclosure of fees and penalties; guidelines to prevent conflicts of interest that end up hurting homeowners; support to keep responsible families in their homes and out of foreclosure; and protection for families against inappropriate foreclosure, including right of appeal.
First pilot sale to transition foreclosed property into rental housing: The FHFA, in conjunction with Treasury and HUD, is announcing a pilot sale of foreclosed properties to be transitioned into rental housing. C.A.R. is opposed to bulk sales of REO properties in California.
Providing a full year of forbearance for borrowers looking for work: Following the administration’s lead, major banks and the GSEs are now providing up to 12 months of forbearance to unemployed borrowers.
Pursuing a joint investigation into mortgage origination and servicing abuses: This effort marshals new resources to investigate misconduct that contributed to the financial crisis under the leadership of federal and state co-chairs.
Rehabilitating neighborhoods and reducing foreclosures: In addition to the steps outlined above, the administration is expanding eligibility for HAMP to reduce additional foreclosures, increasing incentives for modifications that help borrowers rebuild equity, and is proposing to put people back to work rehabilitating neighborhoods through Project Rebuild.

C.A.R. and NAR support the Obama Administration’s efforts to help homeowners and the struggling housing market, because restoring the health of the housing market is critical for the nation’s economic recovery.

December Existing-Home Sales Show Uptrend

Washington, DC, January 20, 2012

Existing-home sales continued on an uptrend in December, rising for three consecutive months and remaining above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The latest monthly data shows total existing-home sales rose 5.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million in December from a downwardly revised 4.39 million in November, and are 3.6 percent higher than the 4.45 million-unit level in December 2010. The estimates are based on completed transactions from multiple listing services that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said these are early signs of what may be a sustained recovery. “The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery,” he said. “Record low mortgage interest rates, job growth and bargain home prices are giving more consumers the confidence they need to enter the market.”

For all of 2011, existing-home sales rose 1.7 percent to 4.26 million from 4.19 million in 2010.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to another record low of 3.96 percent in December from 3.99 percent in November; the rate was 4.71 percent in December 2010; recordkeeping began in 1971.

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said more buyers are expected to take advantage of market conditions this year. “The American dream of homeownership is alive and well. We have a large pent-up demand, and household formation is likely to return to normal as the job market steadily improves,” he said. “More buyers coming into the market mean additional benefits for the overall economy. When people buy homes, they stimulate a lot of related goods and services.”

Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 9.2 percent to 2.38 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 7.2-month supply in November.

Available inventory has trended down since setting a record of 4.04 million in July 2007, and is at the lowest level since March 2005 when there were 2.30 million homes on the market.

“The inventory supply suggests many markets will see prices stabilize or grow moderately in the near future,” Yun said.

Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 22 percent in December, up from 20 percent a year ago, while short sales closed 13 percent below market value compared with a 16 percent discount in December 2010.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $164,500 in December, which is 2.5 percent below December 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 32 percent of sales in December (19 percent were foreclosures and 13 percent were short sales), up from 29 percent in November; they were 36 percent in December 2010.

All-cash sales accounted for 31 percent of purchases in December, up from 28 percent in November and 29 percent in December 2010. Investors account for the bulk of cash transactions.

Investors purchased 21 percent of homes in December, up from 19 percent in November and 20 percent in December 2010. First-time buyers fell to 31 percent of transactions in December from 35 percent in November; they were 33 percent in December 2010.

Contract failures were reported by 33 percent of NAR members in December, unchanged from November; they were 9 percent in December 2010. Although closed sales are holding up better than this finding would suggest, contract cancellations are caused largely by declined mortgage applications and failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price.

Single-family home sales increased 4.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11 million in December from 3.93 million in November, and are 4.3 percent higher than the 3.94 million-unit pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $165,100 in December, which is 2.5 percent below December 2010.

Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 8.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 500,000 in December from 460,000 in November but are 2.0 percent below the 510,000-unit level in December 2010. The median existing condo price was $160,000 in December, down 3.0 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 2.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in December but are 0.8 percent below December 2010. The median price in the West was $205,200, up 0.3 percent from a year ago.

Source: NAR

MCLEAN, Va., Jan. 12, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates easing to new all-time record lows for all products covered in the survey helping to keep homebuyer affordability high. The average for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been below 4.00 percent for six consecutive weeks.

News Facts

l 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.89 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 12, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.91 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent.

l 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.16 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.23 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.08 percent.

l 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.86 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.72 percent.

l 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.76 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.23 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs, which are not included in the survey.

Quotes

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

l “Mortgage rates eased slightly this week to all-time record lows following mixed indicators in the labor market. Although the economy added 1.6 million jobs in 2011, which was the most since 2006, the unemployment rate remained historically elevated. The 2009 to 2011 period had the highest three-year average unemployment rate since 1939 to 1941. Moreover, the Federal Reserve indicated in its January 11th regional economic review that most industries saw limited permanent hiring at the end of last year.”

Get the latest information from Freddie Mac’s Office of the Chief Economist on Twitter: @FreddieMac.

From B of A Weekly Report

January 11, 2012

Last week in review (January 2 – 6, 2012)

On Friday, the Labor Department reported that 200,000 jobs were created in December, with 212,000 private job gains offsetting modest losses in government jobs. Adding to the positive spin of the report was the unemployment rate falling to 8.5% from a previously reported and upwardly revised 8.7% reading.

The U-6 unemployment rate dropped a few ticks as well, to 15.2%. This number includes all unemployed individuals, including those “marginally attached” to the labor force, who are ‘discouraged’ and haven’t sought work recently, as well as those folks working part-time who really desire full-time jobs.

Overall the jobs report was a modestly positive reading on the labor market. We still have 5.6 million people unemployed for 27 weeks or more, and that number is little changed this month. But the big takeaway is that the trend is improving.

The other big takeaway is that negative news out of Europe helped balance out the good jobs news here at home, allowing bonds and home loan rates to recover from their initial negative reaction to the Labor Department’s report. The Euro continues to be weighed down by rising concern about member countries’ ability to get their deficits in order and their debt in manageable position.

The bottom line is that the financial problems in Europe are vast, complicated, and without easy solutions. And during times of global uncertainty, money will flow into the relative safe haven of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds — including mortgage bonds, which home loan rates are tied to.

As you can see in the chart below, bonds and home loan rates remain near their record best levels.

This time of year when you see a property show up as a ‘New Listing’, do your homework. In the first week of the New Year, there were over 100 expired listings and at least 30 new listings. In the Santa Barbara MLS, and many others around the country, when a property listing expires or is cancelled and then relisted as early as a day later, the Days on the Market counter or DOM is reset. This practice is referred to as churning when a property is relisted by the same agent. So, in a month when you see a home that has been on for just 30 days, ask your agent if the property has been listed in the last twelve months. The more you know about the property, the better off you are in negotiations.

MORTGAGES
How Low Can Rates Go?

The New York Times
By VICKIE ELMER
Published: December 29, 2011

IF your New Year’s resolutions include buying a house or refinancing, the Federal Reserve has you covered. It has committed to keep long-term interest rates low through next year, so a 30-year mortgage will be pegged about where it is now — 4.32 percent in New York — at least through spring, said Frank E. Nothaft, the chief economist at Freddie Mac.

Read the whole story here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/realestate/mortgages-how-to-get-a-rock-bottom-rate.html?_r=2&ref=realestate